Introduction
Population projections shape policy, planning, and resource allocation—from schools and hospitals to pensions and labour markets. India’s Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW) publishes quinquennial population projections for All India by gender and age group, providing a consistent basis for long-term planning.
This article uses official MoHFW projection data (sourced via Dataful) to answer:
- How does India’s total population change from 2011 to 2036?
- How do male and female populations and the sex ratio evolve?
- How does the age structure shift—children, working-age, and elderly?
- What do age pyramids for 2011 and 2036 show?
Data scope: Quinquennial years 2011, 2016, 2021, 2026, 2031, 2036; All India; gender- and age-group-wise. All totals in this post are derived by summing over age groups (excluding the aggregate “Total” row in the source) for consistency. Values are expressed in millions for readability.
Methodology and Data Source
We use the public dataset "Population Projection of India: Gender- and Age-group-wise All India Quinquennial Projected Population (2011 - 2036)."
Key details
| Detail | Information |
|---|---|
| Organisation | Ministry of Health and Family Welfare |
| Source | MoHFW Population Projection Report 2011–2036 |
| Granularity | All India, quinquennial |
| Time period | 2011, 2016, 2021, 2026, 2031, 2036 |
| Units | Population in thousands (we report in millions) |
| Citation | Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. Population Projection of India: Gender- and Age-group-wise All India Quinquennial Projected Population (2011 - 2036) [Data set]. Dataful. https://dataful.in/datasets/1301 |
How we use it: Each row in the source is a year–state–age_group–gender combination with a count in thousands. We filter to All India and exclude the "Total" age_group row (which has inconsistent totals in the source), then sum over age groups to get total population, male/female totals, sex ratio, broad age bands (0–14, 15–59, 60+), and working-age share. Charts and tables below use these derived totals.
Total Population Over Time
India’s total population is projected to grow from about 1.24 billion in 2011 to about 1.54 billion in 2036—an increase of roughly 300 million over 25 years. Growth is positive in every quinquennial step but the pace slows over time as fertility declines and the base enlarges.
Year-wise total population (million)
| Year | Total population (million) |
|---|---|
| 2011 | 1,235.27 |
| 2016 | 1,313.98 |
| 2021 | 1,384.50 |
| 2026 | 1,445.33 |
| 2031 | 1,496.04 |
| 2036 | 1,537.53 |
In 2011 the derived total is 1,235 million; by 2036 it reaches 1,538 million. The absolute increase from 2011 to 2036 is about 302 million, with the largest quinquennial jumps in the earlier years (e.g. 2011→2016 and 2016→2021) and smaller increments later (2031→2036).
Total Population by Year
Gender Split and Sex Ratio
Population is split by male and female; both grow in absolute terms, but the sex ratio (females per 1,000 males) improves steadily in the projections—from about 943 in 2011 to about 957 in 2036. That reflects both differential mortality assumptions and the fact that newer birth cohorts are projected with a more balanced ratio.
Population by gender and sex ratio
| Year | Male (million) | Female (million) | Sex ratio (females per 1,000 males) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 635.92 | 599.36 | 942.5 |
| 2016 | 675.88 | 638.10 | 944.1 |
| 2021 | 711.16 | 673.34 | 946.8 |
| 2026 | 741.11 | 704.22 | 950.2 |
| 2031 | 765.65 | 730.39 | 954.0 |
| 2036 | 785.79 | 751.74 | 956.7 |
Male population grows from 636 million (2011) to 786 million (2036); female population from 599 million to 752 million. The sex ratio rises from 942.5 to 956.7, indicating a gradual narrowing of the gap between the number of males and females in the projected population.
Male and Female Population by Year
Sex Ratio (Females per 1000 Males)
Age Structure: Working-Age Share and Broad Bands
The age structure of the population matters for dependency, labour supply, and public spending. We group the data into three broad bands:
- 0–14 years (children)
- 15–59 years (working age)
- 60+ years (elderly)
The working-age share (15–59 as a percentage of total population) increases from about 59.5% in 2011 to 64.3% in 2031 and 2036—a classic demographic dividend phase. At the same time, the elderly (60+) segment grows in both absolute and relative terms.
Population by broad age band (million)
| Year | 0–14 (million) | 15–59 (million) | 60+ (million) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 373.83 | 735.47 | 101.55 |
| 2016 | 360.06 | 811.76 | 118.42 |
| 2021 | 347.08 | 876.37 | 137.90 |
| 2026 | 335.06 | 925.23 | 163.15 |
| 2031 | 319.79 | 961.94 | 193.79 |
| 2036 | 301.20 | 989.03 | 228.06 |
Children (0–14) decline from 374 million to 301 million—a shrinking share of the total. Working age (15–59) rises from 735 million to 989 million, and its share goes from 59.5% to 64.3%. Elderly (60+) more than doubles from 102 million to 228 million, with clear implications for pensions, healthcare, and caregiving.
Working-age (15–59) share of total population (%)
| Year | Share (%) |
|---|---|
| 2011 | 59.5 |
| 2016 | 61.8 |
| 2021 | 63.3 |
| 2026 | 64.0 |
| 2031 | 64.3 |
| 2036 | 64.3 |
Population by Broad Age Bands
Working-Age (15–59) Share of Population
Age Pyramids: 2011 vs 2036
An age pyramid shows the distribution of the population by age group and gender: typically males on the left and females on the right. Comparing 2011 and 2036 highlights:
- Base (young ages): The 0–4 and 5–9 bands are smaller in 2036 than in 2011, consistent with lower fertility.
- Bulk in the middle: The working-age bands (e.g. 25–39) remain large in both years; by 2036 the pyramid becomes more barrel-shaped as the share of children shrinks and the share of older adults grows.
- Top (60+): All elderly age groups grow from 2011 to 2036—both in absolute size and as a share of the total.
The charts below plot male (left) and female (right) population in millions for each five-year age group.
Key age bands: 2011 vs 2036 (million, total persons)
| Age band | 2011 (million) | 2036 (million) |
|---|---|---|
| 0–14 | 373.83 | 301.20 |
| 15–59 | 735.47 | 989.03 |
| 60+ | 101.55 | 228.06 |
Age Pyramid 2011
Age Pyramid 2036
Highlights and Implications
Slower growth, larger base
Total population grows by about 302 million from 2011 to 2036, but the rate of growth slows over time. The quinquennial increments are largest in 2011–2016 and 2016–2021 and smaller in the later periods. This is consistent with declining fertility and an ageing population.
Demographic dividend
The working-age (15–59) share rises from 59.5% to 64.3%, implying a larger potential labour force relative to children and elderly. This “demographic dividend” window can support growth if accompanied by jobs, education, and health—but it is time-bound; eventually the share of elderly rises and the share of working-age can decline.
Ageing and elderly
The 60+ population more than doubles from 102 million (2011) to 228 million (2036). That has direct implications for pensions, healthcare, long-term care, and social protection. Planning for an older India is critical.
Improving sex ratio
The sex ratio (females per 1,000 males) improves from 942.5 to 956.7 in the projections. This reflects the methodology and assumptions in the official report (e.g. mortality and fertility by sex) and, in practice, would depend on continued progress on gender equality and survival.
Summary
India’s official MoHFW projections paint a picture of continued population growth with slower pace, a rising working-age share through the 2011–2036 window, and rapid growth of the elderly segment. The data is a useful reference for policy, research, and public discourse—with the caveat that actual outcomes will depend on fertility, mortality, and migration, which can diverge from these assumptions.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the source of this population data?
The data comes from the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW) Population Projection Report for 2011–2036, published as a PDF and made available in structured form via Dataful. The report provides All India, quinquennial projections by gender and age group.
Why are totals in this post different from the “Total” row in the CSV?
The source CSV includes an aggregate “Total” row per year and gender that, in our checks, does not match the sum of the age-group rows. For consistency, we derive all totals by summing over age groups (excluding the “Total” row). Tables and charts in this post use these derived totals.
What are the broad age bands 0–14, 15–59, and 60+?
We map the detailed age groups in the CSV to three bands: 0–14 (0–4, 5–9, 10–14), 15–59 (15–19 through 55–59), and 60+ (60–64, 65–69, 70–74, 75–79, 80+). These are commonly used for dependency and labour-force analysis.
In what units is the original data?
The original data is in thousands. We convert to millions (divide by 1,000) in all tables and charts for readability.
Does this dataset include state-level projections?
The dataset used here is All India only. The MoHFW report may contain state-level material in the PDF; the CSV we use has a “state” column but in our file all rows are “All India.” For state-level analysis, you would need a different or extended source.
How can I cite this data?
Cite the MoHFW as the original source and Dataful as the dataset provider, for example: Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. Population Projection of India: Gender- and Age-group-wise All India Quinquennial Projected Population (2011 - 2036) [Data set]. Dataful. https://dataful.in/datasets/1301